巴菲特給股東的信 1977年 Part 3

John Ringwalt’s homestate operation now consists of five companies,
with Kansas Fire and Casualty Company becoming operational late in 1977
under the direction of Floyd Taylor. The homestate companies had net
premium volume of $23 million, up from $5.5 million just three years ago.
All four companies that operated throughout the year achieved combined
ratios below 100, with Cornhusker Casualty Company, at 93.8, the leader.
In addition to actively supervising the other four homestate operations, John
Ringwalt manages the operations of Cornhusker which has recorded
combined ratios below 100 in six of its seven full years of existence and,
from a standing start in 1970, has grown to be one of the leading insurance
companies operating in Nebraska utilizing the conventional independent
agency system. Lakeland Fire and Casualty Company, managed by Jim
Stodolka, was the winner of the Chairman’s Cup in 1977 for achieving the
lowest loss ratio among the homestate companies. All in all, the homestate
operation continues to make excellent progress.

John Ringwalt負責的Homestate業務旗下主要包含五家公司，其中堪薩斯火險在
Floyd Taylor籌備下於1977年底正式營運，Homestate 1977年的保費淨收入達到
2,300萬美元，三年前不過只有550萬美元，其餘四家的年度綜合比率都低於100，
其中Cornhusker甚至只有93.8，John在努力管理其他四家公司的同時，更讓
Cornhusker過去七年有六年的綜合比率低於100，從1970年正式營運以來，該公司
已順利成為內布拉斯加州傳統獨立經紀系統的領導業者，至於由Jim Stodolka帶領的
Lakeland火險則榮獲1977年主席杯的頭銜，因為去年該公司的綜合比率最低，總的
來說，Homestate集團的營運在去年大有進展。

The newest addition to our insurance group is Cypress Insurance
Company of South Pasadena, California. This Worker’s Compensation
insurer was purchased for cash in the final days of 1977 and, therefore, its
approximate $12.5 million of volume for that year was not included in our
results. Cypress and National Indemnity’s present California Worker’s
Compensation operation will not be combined, but will operate
independently utilizing somewhat different marketing strategies. Milt
Thornton, President of Cypress since 1968, runs a first-class operation for
policyholders, agents, employees and owners alike. We look forward to
working with him.

我們旗下保險事業最新加入的成員是位於加州的賽普路斯保險，至於勞工退休金保險
則因為是在1977年底以現金買下，所以其1,250萬美元的保費收入並未列入我們當
年的營運記錄，賽普路斯與國家產險現有的勞工退休金保險業務不會合併，而會採用
不同的行銷策略各自獨立經營，賽普路斯現任總裁Milt Thornton，在保戶、業務員、
員工及股東方面的營運管理皆屬一流，對於能與他一起共事，我們相當期待。

Insurance companies offer standardized policies which can be copied by
anyone. Their only products are promises. It is not difficult to be licensed,
and rates are an open book. There are no important advantages from
trademarks, patents, location, corporate longevity, raw material sources,
etc., and very little consumer differentiation to produce insulation from
competition. It is commonplace, in corporate annual reports, to stress the
difference that people make. Sometimes this is true and sometimes it isn’t.
But there is no question that the nature of the insurance business magnifies
the effect which individual managers have on company performance. We
are very fortunate to have the group of managers that are associated with us.

保險公司提供的制式保單很容易為其他同業所模仿，他們唯一的產品就是承諾，保險
執照不難取得，而費率也是公開的，這行業商標、專利、地點、企業年資、原物料等
都不重要，消費者對於產品也很難產生特別的偏好，在企業的年報中，常常看到有人
強調自己不同於其他同業的特殊之處，有時這樣的說法有道理，有時沒什麼道理，但
不可否認的是，保險事業的本質使得經理人的表現，對於公司績效的影響具有舉足輕
重的地位，很幸運的是與我們共事的是一群優秀的經理人。

Insurance Investments

保險事業的投資

During the past two years insurance investments at cost (excluding the
investment in our affiliate, Blue Chip Stamps) have grown from $134.6
million to $252.8 million. Growth in insurance reserves, produced by our
large gain in premium volume, plus retained earnings, have accounted for
this increase in marketable securities. In turn, net investment income of the
Insurance Group has improved from $8.4 million pre-tax in 1975 to $12.3
million pre-tax in 1977.

過去兩年我們保險事業投入的資金成本(扣除對關係企業藍籌郵票的投資)已從原先的
1.346億美元成長到2.528億美元，保險準備的成長，主要是由於保費收入的大幅增
加，加上保留的盈餘，是我們投資部位之所以大幅增加的原因，也因此，我們整體保
險事業因為投資而增加的淨收益也由1975年稅前840萬美元的利益成長到1977年
的1,230萬美元。

In addition to this income from dividends and interest, we realized
capital gains of $6.9 million before tax, about one-quarter from bonds and
the balance from stocks. Our unrealized gain in stocks at yearend 1977 was
approximately $74 million but this figure, like any other figure of a single
date (we had an unrealized loss of $17 million at the end of 1974), should not
be taken too seriously. Most of our large stock positions are going to be
held for many years and the scorecard on our investment decisions will be
provided by business results over that period, and not by prices on any given
day. Just as it would be foolish to focus unduly on short-term prospects
when acquiring an entire company, we think it equally unsound to become
mesmerized by prospective near term earnings or recent trends in earnings
when purchasing small pieces of a company; i.e., marketable common
stocks.

除了股利與利息收入之外，我們還實現了稅前690萬美元的資本利得，四分之一來自
債券，剩下的則來自股票，至於1977年年底未實現的資本利得大約在7,400萬美元
之譜，對於這個數字，就像任何單一日期的數字，(1974年底帳上有1,700萬美元的
未實現損失)大家不必看得太認真，因為我們持股部位比較大的投資，往往要持有很長
一段時間，所以我們的投資績效依據的是這些被投資公司在這段期間的經營表現，而
不是特定時期的股票價格，就像我們認為買下一家公司卻只關心他的短期狀況是件很
傻的事，同樣地持有公司部份所有權-也就是股票，我們認為只關心短期盈餘或者是盈
餘短暫的變動也不應該。

A little digression illustrating this point may be interesting. Berkshire
Fine Spinning Associates and Hathaway Manufacturing were merged in 1955
to form Berkshire Hathaway Inc. In 1948, on a pro forma combined basis,
they had earnings after tax of almost $18 million and employed 10,000
people at a dozen large mills throughout New England. In the business
world of that period they were an economic powerhouse. For example, in
that same year earnings of IBM were $28 million (now $2.7 billion), Safeway
Stores, $10 million, Minnesota Mining, $13 million, and Time, Inc., $9
million. But, in the decade following the 1955 merger aggregate sales of
$595 million produced an aggregate loss for Berkshire Hathaway of $10
million. By 1964 the operation had been reduced to two mills and net worth
had shrunk to $22 million, from $53 million at the time of the merger. So
much for single year snapshots as adequate portrayals of a business.

離題一下，有一點很有趣足以說明上述情況，Berkshire紡紗與Hathaway工業是在
1955年合併成為Berkshire Hathaway公司的，再將時間往回推到1948年，在擬制
合併的基礎下，當年他們合計稅前盈餘達到1,800萬美元，旗下擁有十個遍佈新英格
蘭地區的工廠，員工人數一萬人，在當時的環境，他們算是經濟成長的重要動力之一，
因為IBM在同一年度的盈餘也不過2,800萬美元(現在的年獲利達到27億美元)，另外
Safeway商店1,000萬、3M只有1,300萬而時代雜誌則為900萬，然而在雙方合併
後的十年內，累計營收雖然有5.95億，但結算虧損卻達到1,000萬美元，時至1964
年，公司的營運僅剩兩家工廠，淨值更從合併時的5,300萬美元大幅縮減至2,200萬
美元，所以我們可以這樣說，單一年度所透露出公司營運的景況實在是極其有限。

Equity holdings of our insurance companies with a market value of over
$5 million on December 31, 1977 were as follows:

以下是1977年底，我們旗下保險公司持股市價超過500萬美元的投資：

No. of Shares Company Cost Market

------------- ------- -------- --------

(000’s omitted)

220,000 Capital Cities Communications, Inc. ..... $ 10,909 $ 13,228

1,986,953 Government Employees Insurance

Company Convertible Preferred ........ 19,417 33,033

1,294,308 Government Employees Insurance

Company Common Stock ................. 4,116 10,516

592,650 The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. 4,531 17,187

324,580 Kaiser Aluminum& Chemical Corporation ... 11,218 9,981

1,305,800 Kaiser Industries, Inc. ................. 778 6,039

226,900 Knight-Ridder Newspapers, Inc. .......... 7,534 8,736

170,800 Ogilvy & Mather International, Inc. ..... 2,762 6,960

934,300 The Washington Post Company Class B ..... 10,628 33,401

-------- --------

Total ................................... $ 71,893 $139,081

All Other Holdings ...................... 34,996 41,992

-------- --------

Total Equities .......................... $106,889 $181,073

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